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How Fires, Floods and Hurricanes Create Deadly Pockets of Information Isolation

2023-09-17 21:49:29
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When sudden wildfires ravaged the Hawaiian island of Maui this August, one of the first casualties was the local telecommunications grid. As people scrambled to escape the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century, their cell phone service vanished. The resulting inability to contact loved ones, hear weather forecasts or plan an escape route turned a bad situation dire. Similar scenes recently played out in Canada’s Northwest Territories when wildfires there damaged communication infrastructure.

“Every disaster I’ve been a part of, every disaster I’ve read about, communications are the first to go,” says Alison Poste, an emergency management professional based in British Columbia. “It’s a really big challenge. For those who don’t have cell phone access and those who don't have access to alerting tools, we don’t know what to do.” Disasters such as wildfires, hurricanes and flooding are increasing in both frequency and intensity. Ensuring that everyone confronting such a disaster—residents, first responders and emergency managers alike—has the means to properly communicate is critical. That effort faces a sprawling array of obstacles, but a scattering of individuals, businesses and local governments are working to overcome them.

In most communities, cell phones are the locus of information gathering and distribution during a disaster. Local governments can send text alerts with essential updates, and until recently, emergency managers used Twitter (the social network recently renamed X) to disseminate critical information. There are other emergency-notification tools, including the apps Alertable and Everbridge. But these resources rely on users having an active cell signal—and cell towers and other infrastructure can be quickly disabled in a fire, flood or other disaster, creating a chaotic and dangerous information bottleneck.

“If you lose your phone, and it’s a perfectly normal Tuesday..., you’re really in a bad way, right?” says Leysia Palen, a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, who studies disaster informatics. “If we lose it in a normal situation, then certainly we’re going to have trouble in a disaster situation.” Palen says that before the advent of cell phones and social media, most people facing a disaster cobbled together information from several sources such as radio, neighbors and television news. This is still the case to some extent. But today’s near-exclusive reliance on cell phones makes telecommunications grids crucial.

These networks of towers, antennas and wires are vulnerable at multiple points. “The grids are becoming more interdependent,” says Susanne Jul, an emergency management consultant. “The grid can fail in one place, and it may not be my local cell tower that burned, but it may be a communication center some miles away, and so we failed to get the signal through.” When a failure like this happens, backup generators and portable cell sites that temporarily restore service to a small area can help communities get their communications back online. Such tools often arrive only after a disaster’s peak, however.

Constructing a map of the telecommunications network locations that are most threatened by disasters is still a work in progress, according to several experts. The situation is complicated by the fact that information about existing telecommunications infrastructure is hard to come by: Private companies such as AT&T and Xfinity do not release detailed information on where their cell towers, antennas and other infrastructure components are located to researchers or the public, according to Seth Guikema, a risk analyst and a professor of engineering at the University of Michigan. The Federal Communications Commission provides data on what percentage of cell towers have experienced outages, but these reports don’t include location information that is fine enough for independent researchers to accurately map the network. “The cell companies don’t want to share it if they do have it. I’ve been in meetings with the federal government with the cell companies, and they treat that data as very private,” Guikema says.

A more proactive option would be to make grids less vulnerable in the first place. Yet different types of disasters affect their infrastructure in different ways. Hurricanes whip cell towers around, so carriers make sure these structures can withstand high winds, such as those up to 110 miles per hour. The heat and flames from wildfires tend to rise upward, so they do not usually damage underground fiber-optic cables. They can still threaten towers, antennas and other above-ground infrastructure, however. Removing flammable fuel, including trees and brush, near these structures would help ensure they survive the next wildfire, Guikema says.

If all grid-protection attempts fail, there are some tools that communities and emergency managers can use to survive the resulting no-cellular landscape. Sirens and AM radio broadcasts remain important, and more sophisticated options are also available. But technologies that people aren’t used to using regularly might not be very helpful in an emergency, in which speed can make the difference between life and death. So unless you’re a boat operator, skip the satellite phone, Jul recommends. “The tool you have in your hand or your pocket is what we need to be using,” she says.

The best resource, though, might be a person’s surrounding community. When the Marshall Fire blazed through atmospheric scientist Rebecca Morss’s Boulder, Colo., neighborhood in 2021, she relied on her phone and her neighbors to navigate the most destructive wildfire in the state’s history, she says. Morss and her family evacuated as soon as they saw smoke early in the day, and in the scramble, they left their two cats behind. Morss wanted to head back for her pets, so she texted a neighbor to check whether it would be safe to return. “She called me right back, and she's like, ‘No, the streets are on fire. The hills are on fire,’” says Morss, who is a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. (Luckily for the cats, Loretta and Chunky Jenkins, the fire stopped one block short of Morss’s house.)

Even with Morss’s 20 years of experience researching weather and risk communication during disasters, she ultimately relied on that local friend as an effective way to get the information she needed. And that kind of human network is just as crucial as the telecommunications grid. “We have a long history of doing this pre-cell phone,” Morss says. “Often the first responders are the local people in the community until officials can get there. Thirty or 40 years ago, that's what people did.” As disasters continue apace, and technology struggles to keep up, more and more communities will need to tap into this age-old tool.

参考译文
火灾、洪水和飓风如何制造致命的信息孤岛# 示例输入和输出**输入** 人工智能(AI)是计算机科学的一个分支,旨在开发表现出人类智能的软件或机器。这包括从经验中学习、理解自然语言、解决问题以及识别模式。**输出** 人工智能(AI)是计算机科学的一个分支,旨在开发表现出人类智能的软件或机器。这包括从经验中学习、理解自然语言、解决问题以及识别模式。
八月,突如其来的野火肆虐了美国夏威夷的毛伊岛,当地的电信网络成为首批受害者之一。当人们拼命逃离这场一个多世纪以来最致命的美国野火时,他们的手机服务突然中断了。失去联系亲人、获取天气预报或规划逃生路线的能力使本已糟糕的情况变得更加危急。类似的情景最近也发生在加拿大的西北地区,那里的野火破坏了通信基础设施。“我参与过的每一次灾难,我读过的每一次灾难,通信总是第一个瘫痪的。”来自不列颠哥伦比亚省的应急管理专家艾莉森·波斯特(Alison Poste)说,“这是一个非常大的挑战。对于那些没有手机或没有预警工具的人,我们都不知道该怎么办。”野火、飓风和洪水等灾害在频率和强度方面都在增加。确保所有面临这些灾害的人——包括居民、第一响应者和应急管理官员——能够有效沟通至关重要。这一努力面临着众多障碍,但一些个人、企业和地方政府正努力加以克服。在大多数社区,手机在灾难期间是信息收集和传播的核心。地方政府可以通过短信发送重要更新,而直到最近,应急管理机构还使用推特(这个社交网络最近更名为X)来传播关键信息。还有其他应急通知工具,例如Alertable和Everbridge等应用程序。但这些工具都依赖于用户拥有可用的手机信号,而在火灾、洪水或其他灾害中,手机基站和其他基础设施常常会迅速瘫痪,从而导致混乱且危险的信息瓶颈。“如果你在某个周二突然失去手机,那你还挺倒霉的,对吧?”科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的灾难信息学教授莱西娅·帕伦(Leysia Palen)说,“如果在正常情况下我们都会遇到麻烦,那么在灾难发生时就肯定会更糟。”帕伦表示,在手机和社交媒体出现之前,大多数人面对灾难时通常会从不同的渠道拼凑信息,比如收音机、邻居和电视新闻。至今在某种程度上仍然如此。然而,如今我们几乎完全依赖手机,因此电信网络变得至关重要。由塔、天线和电线组成的这些网络在多个环节都存在漏洞。“电信网络变得越来越相互依存,”应急管理顾问苏珊娜·朱尔(Susanne Jul)表示,“网络在一处失效,可能并不是我的本地手机塔被烧毁了,而可能是几英里外的通信中心出了问题,因此信号就无法传递。”当这种故障发生时,备用发电机和临时恢复小区域服务的便携式手机基站可以帮助社区重新建立通信。然而,这些工具通常只在灾难最严重阶段之后才到达。几位专家表示,绘制出电信网络中最容易受到灾害威胁的位置图仍是一个正在进行的工作。但情况因一个事实而变得更加复杂:电信基础设施的具体信息很难获得。密歇根大学的工程学教授兼风险分析师塞思·吉克马(Seth Guikema)表示,像AT&T和Xfinity这样的私营企业不会向研究人员或公众提供有关他们手机塔、天线和其他基础设施具体位置的详细信息。联邦通信委员会会提供手机塔故障百分比的数据,但这些报告没有足够精确的地理位置信息,不足以让独立研究人员准确绘制出整个网络。“如果手机公司真的掌握了这些数据,他们并不愿意分享。我曾出席过与联邦政府和手机公司的会议,他们把这些数据视为非常私密的信息。”吉克马说。更主动的策略是从一开始就让网络结构本身更具抗灾能力。但不同类型的灾害对基础设施的影响方式各不相同。飓风会吹倒手机塔,因此运营商会确保这些结构能够承受强风,比如每小时110英里的风速。野火产生的热量和火焰通常向上蔓延,因此不会影响地下的光纤电缆。然而,它们仍然可能威胁到塔、天线和其他地面设施。吉克马说,在这些设施附近移除可燃物,比如树木和灌木,有助于确保它们在下一次野火中能够幸存下来。如果所有保护网络的尝试都失败了,社区和应急管理机构仍有一些工具可以应对失去手机信号的环境。警报和AM广播仍然至关重要,也有一些更先进的选择。但人们平时不常用的科技在紧急情况下可能并不太实用——在生死攸关的时刻,速度至关重要。朱尔建议,除非你是船长,否则不要依赖卫星电话。“我们需要用的工具就是你手边或口袋里的那个。”她说。尽管如此,最宝贵的资源可能是一个人身边的社区。2021年,大气科学家丽贝卡·莫尔斯(Rebecca Morss)居住的科罗拉多州博尔德社区遭遇了猛烈的马歇尔大火。她说,她依靠手机和邻居们度过了该州历史上破坏性最强的一场野火。莫尔斯和家人在当天一早发现烟雾后立即撤离了,而在慌乱中,他们把两只猫留在了家中。莫尔斯想回去救宠物,于是发短信给邻居,询问是否可以安全返回。她回忆道:“邻居立刻给我回了电话,她对我说:‘不行,街道已经着火了,山丘也着火了。’”莫尔斯是博尔德国家大气研究中心的高级科学家。(幸运的是,她的两只猫,洛雷塔和金金,大火只在离她家一个街区的地方就停了下来。)尽管莫尔斯在灾难中的天气和风险沟通研究方面拥有20年的经验,但她最终还是依靠这位当地邻居,以一种最有效的方式获取了她所需的信息。而这种人与人之间的网络,和电信网络一样重要。“在手机出现之前,我们早就有了这种联系的历史,”莫尔斯说。“通常在官员到达之前,第一响应者就是社区里的人。30年或40年前,人们就是这样做的。”随着灾害持续发生,而技术难以跟上步伐,越来越多的社区将需要重新启用这一古老而重要的工具。
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